The current role of the iPhone 5 was succinctly highlighted today by retail data and the flurry of upward revisions to GDP estimates. Those figures, indeed, reflect a cold, indisputable fact. That the iPhone is today less a shiny gizmo than a driver of the U.S. economy.
Overall, retail spending rose by 1.1% last month, new Commerce Department data shows, greater than the 0.9% predicted by economists. Propelling that expansion: shopping at electronics and appliance stores. That figure rose by 4.5% to $7.8 billion in September. It’s nearly double the sector with the second largest sales increase—higher petroleum prices pushed gas-station business up—and comfortably more than what grocers, building suppliers and auto dealers saw.economists say, the growth in electronics sales came from the iPhone 5. Apple sold more than 5 million iPhone 5s in just the three days following the device’s release, a million more than the iPhone 4S sold in its first three days. Apple bulls have estimated that the Cupertino, Calif. company could sell upward of 8 million iPhone 5s this year.
September’s unexpected growth came with upward revisions for the period between July to August, to 1.2% from 0.9%. Combined, these retail-sales estimates illustrate a picture of robust consumer spending, which is, by far, the largest part of the U.S. economy. With spending exceeding expectations, economists spent the morning revising third-quarter GDP estimates. Macroeconomic Advisers, for example, lifted its third-quarter prediction to 2% from 1.6% andfourth-quarter estimate to 1.4% from 1.3%. Another firm, Capital Economics, says third-quarter GDP will be closer to 2% than its previous estimate of 1.5%.
Now, to exactly quantify the iPhone’s impact. JPMorgan Chase has already suggested that iPhone 5 sales could mean a 0.3% bump in GDP. Capital Economics’ Paul Dales believes it’s less than that, closer to 0.1% to 0.2%. Nonetheless, it all adds up to underscore the iPhone’s outsize position.
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