NASCAR 2012 odds to win the Chase

With four races remaining in the Chase, this week at Martinsville will likely be when we pinpoint where the eventual 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Champion made his move. While we expect Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin to run well because of their historical greatness on the flat half-mile track, the real questions this week surround current points leader Brad Keselowski.

Keselowski has been leading the Chase since winning at Chicago six weeks ago to kick off NASCAR’s version of the playoffs. He’s got a seven-point lead with four races to go, but he’s going against the best-of-the-best at Martinsville, a track where he’s averaged an okay 13.4 finish in five career races. That doesn’t come close to stacking up against what the two drivers chasing him have done there.

Hamlin has four wins over his career at the track that is about three hours away from his Chesterfield, Va. hometown. Johnson is a six-time Martinsville winner, who has taken the checkers there in four of his five Championship seasons. Keselowski? Well, he had a career-best ninth-place finish at Martinsville in the spring race.

Even if Johnson has his typically strong showing at the track, Keselowski, should he at least match his career best at Martinsville, could be neck-and-neck with Johnson with three races to go.

It may sound like we’re just assuming Johnson will run in the top 5, but that’s been about as solid a bet as there has been in NASCAR over the past decade. He has 14 top 5 finishes over his last 18 Martinsville races, and his worst finish over that stretch was 12th this spring.

Hamlin has a lot of ground to make up and almost has to finish third or better this Sunday, while leading some laps, to start erasing his 20-point deficit. We expect him to run well at Texas, Phoenix and Homestead, tracks he’s won on over his career, but his 13th-place performance at Kansas last week has to be a little concerning.

Granted, the new surface at Kansas had several teams scrambling to find the right mix. The Fords of Matt Kenseth, the eventual race winner, and Greg Biffle obviously had an edge throughout testing and practices prior to the race. But that race did indicate that Hamlin might not be as ahead of the game on the final two races on 1.5-mile tracks we once thought. And if the Ford's midseason aero-package problems have truly been fixed, it minimizes chances to get maximum points on those two tracks, making 20-points seem like a much larger gulf.

For that very reason, Hamlin’s odds to win the Championship have been raised from the 3-to-2 favorite last week to 5-to-2 this week at the LVH. Johnson is the favorite at 7-to-5, and Keselowski is right behind at 3-to-2.